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Buying a Home in Today’s Market—Fall 2023

Buying a Home in Today’s Market—Fall 2023


The housing market is always evolving, and it can sometimes feel like you never quite know when it’s the right time to buy. But your friendly experts at Wintrust Mortgage are always here to guide you through the mortgage process, no matter how the market looks.

The last few years in the housing market have been a roller coaster for everyone. Record low rates—2.65% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in January 2021,1 for example—led to surging demand, bidding wars, and plummeting inventory. A dramatic reversal began in early 2022; rates for the same 30-year fixed-rate mortgage broke 7% for the first time in more than two decades in October 2022,2 rates which have remained relatively consistent through this summer.

But with this stabilization, it’s important to point out that these recent interest rates have not been particularly high by historic standards, but rather followed a period of historically low rates within the past few years.

Consider what interest rates have looked like for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage over the past several decades:
 

Decade

Avg. Interest Rate3

August 2023*

7.07%

2020s**

4.28%

2010s

4.09%

2000s

6.29%

1990s

8.12%

1980s

12.70%

 

The above table illustrates that interest rates as of August 2023 are not significantly far from the average rate during the 2000s, and are also holding lower than they were in the 1980s and 1990s.

One report released for Q3 of 2021 showed that homeowners gained an astounding $3.2 trillion of collective home equity—an average of $56,700 per borrower—from the same time one year prior.4 While this financial windfall couldn’t be expected to continue trending upward with such indefinite velocity, it nevertheless suggests homeownership shows strong long-term financial potential when you look beyond current conditions and short-term trends in the market.

This is especially important to think about for first-time buyers, considering the average rental increase of a single-family home in the United States peaked at a whopping 16% year-over-year in February 2022. Despite these increases slowing down more recently, rental rates continue to trend upward; in August 2023, asking rents increased by an additional 3.3% from the same month one year prior. Average asking rent in the U.S. has exceeded $2,000 per month,5 100% of which is paid to a landlord and never seen again. This is in contrast to monthly mortgage payments, some value of which homeowners can hold onto in the form of increasing home equity over time.

Unfortunately, there remain buyer frustrations in the market. Housing inventory is holding low; one June 2023 report estimated a total inventory decrease of 4.6% over the course of 2023.6 Rather than house hunting in a market characterized by low inventory, many buyers are choosing new construction to build their dream homes with construction-to-permanent home loans. This offers buyers a way to secure financing for a new build, which then converts into a permanent mortgage upon completion. These loans have many benefits for buyers who want to go in this direction:

  • One set of closing costs. Most mortgages don’t cover the cost of construction, meaning a buyer has to go through the borrowing process twice. One loan saves buyers both time and money, with one set of closing costs.
  • Protect against potential changes in the market. Buyers who take on new construction projects run the risk of a fluctuating market during the build. With a construction-to-permanent loan, the interest rate for the long-term mortgage is locked in before a buyer begins work.
  • Give buyers the homes they truly want. The ability to customize every square foot of a house gives buyers the freedom to craft their home to their liking.

We may have the perfect loan for you. No matter how the market looks, Wintrust Mortgage offers lending in all 50 states with a wide selection of mortgage products— including exclusive loans that aren’t available elsewhere—to help you find the perfect solution based on your individual needs. Many products also include down-payment assistance and other incentives for qualifying homebuyers, including grants and tax credits, so you can widen your search to cover as much of the available inventory as possible.

The best way to get started is by becoming a Premier Buyer.†† This gives you a better idea of what you can afford, and saves you time when you start house hunting. Plus, Premier Buyers are more attractive to sellers by proving one is both serious about a prospective purchase and more likely to be able to financially follow through. Wintrust Mortgage offers an online application to become a Premier Buyer that’s fast, easy, and secure.
 

 

* Represents available data from Freddie Mac from August 3, 2023–August 17, 2023, as not all data for the month was yet available.

** Represents available data from Freddie Mac from January 2, 2020–August 17, 2023 as we have not completed the entire decade and do not have all of the data.

This table is for illustrative purposes only. These are historical rates not actual available interest rates today. Rates listed are averages and are not a rate quote or extension of credit. Contact Wintrust Mortgage for details.

††A Premier Buyer is a conditional pre-qualification, meaning the file has been reviewed by a Loan Originator and Automated Underwriting System (AUS) approval has occurred. A formal underwriting review still needs to take place for a commitment letter to be issued.

1, 2 Freddie Mac, Mortgage Rates

3 Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Since 1971

4 Forbes, Homeowners Gained Over $3.2 Trillion In Equity In the 3rd Quarter Of 2021

5 NerdWallet, Rental Market Trends in the U.S. — Rent Growth Finally Slows

6 Realtor.com, June 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report

7 Bankrate, Is the housing market about to crash? What the experts are saying

Restrictions apply. Program, rates, terms and conditions are subject to change at any time and without notice. All approvals are subject to underwriting guidelines. Wintrust Mortgage is a division of Barrington Bank & Trust Company, N.A., a Wintrust Community Bank NMLS #449042. © 2023 Wintrust Mortgage

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